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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 17

Kick-off

Sun 5 Jan 2025

15:30

Venue

Estádio de São Miguel

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Santa Clara Win

37%

Santa Clara

2.71

32%

Draw

3.16

32%

Farense

3.17

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.5%

Home win

Most likely

0 – 0

14.1%

Draw

1 – 1

13.5%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.03

Santa Clara xG

Total xG

1.96

0.93

Farense xG

37%
32%
32%
Santa ClaraDrawFarense

2.71

37%

Home win

3.16

32%

Draw

3.17

32%

Away win

Goals Markets

58%

Over 1.5

1.72

42%

Under 1.5

2.38

31%

Over 2.5

3.23

69%

Under 2.5

1.45

14%

Over 3.5

7.14

86%

Under 3.5

1.16

5%

Over 4.5

20.00

95%

Under 4.5

1.05

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

39%

BTTS Yes

2.56

61%

BTTS No

1.64

Clean Sheet

40%

Santa Clara

2.53

36%

Farense

2.80

Win to Nil

15%

Santa Clara

6.86

11%

Farense

8.89

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 14.1 13.1 6.1 1.9 0.4 0.1
1 14.5 13.5 6.3 1.9 0.4 0.1
2 7.5 6.9 3.2 1.0 0.2
3 2.6 2.4 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.030
λ Away (xG) 0.928
Total xG 1.958
League avg home goals 1.390
League avg away goals 1.180
Santa Clara attack strength 0.753
Santa Clara defence strength 0.932
Farense attack strength 0.844
Farense defence strength 0.984
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 16 / 50