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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 4

Kick-off

Sun 31 Aug 2025

20:30

Venue

Estádio de São Miguel

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Santa Clara Win

40%

Santa Clara

2.47

30%

Draw

3.32

29%

Estrela

3.40

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.6%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

13.4%

Draw

0 – 0

12.8%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.13

Santa Clara xG

Total xG

2.05

0.92

Estrela xG

40%
30%
29%
Santa ClaraDrawEstrela

2.47

40%

Home win

3.32

30%

Draw

3.40

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

61%

Over 1.5

1.64

39%

Under 1.5

2.56

34%

Over 2.5

2.94

66%

Under 2.5

1.52

15%

Over 3.5

6.67

85%

Under 3.5

1.18

6%

Over 4.5

16.67

94%

Under 4.5

1.06

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

41%

BTTS Yes

2.45

59%

BTTS No

1.69

Clean Sheet

40%

Santa Clara

2.51

32%

Estrela

3.11

Win to Nil

16%

Santa Clara

6.19

9%

Estrela

10.58

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.8 11.8 5.4 1.7 0.4 0.1
1 14.6 13.4 6.1 1.9 0.4 0.1
2 8.3 7.6 3.5 1.1 0.2
3 3.1 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.134
λ Away (xG) 0.919
Total xG 2.053
League avg home goals 1.405
League avg away goals 1.244
Santa Clara attack strength 0.818
Santa Clara defence strength 0.913
Estrela attack strength 0.810
Estrela defence strength 0.987
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 36 / 37