Santa Clara 1-0 Estrela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estrela at 39%, yet in-form Santa Clara provide a compelling counter-argument — this Santa Clara vs Estrela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 6 as Santa Clara welcome Estrela to Estádio de São Miguel. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Santa Clara have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Santa Clara have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estrela — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Estrela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estrela's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Santa Clara carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Santa Clara in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Estrela in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 60% versus Estrela 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 60% | Estrela 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 0.98 xG and Estrela 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.803 / defence 1.184 | Estrela attack 0.804 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.172. Data: 5 Santa Clara games / 39 Estrela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 31% | Draw 30% | Estrela 39%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Estrela 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estrela at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Santa Clara (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estrela offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 60% | Estrela 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Estrela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 31% | Draw 30% | Estrela 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Santa Clara 0.98 / Estrela 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.803 / def 1.184 | Estrela attack 0.804 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Estrela (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Estrela xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Estrela kick off?
Santa Clara vs Estrela kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Estrela?
Santa Clara 1 - 0 Estrela.
Where is Santa Clara vs Estrela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Estrela part of?
Santa Clara vs Estrela is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Estrela?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 31% chance of winning, Estrela a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Estrela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Estrela?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Santa Clara and Estrela will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Estrela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Estrela?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Santa Clara and Estrela in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Estrela (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Santa Clara vs Estrela?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Santa Clara's attack at 0.80x the league average against Estrela's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estrela's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estrela Win
31%
3.18
30%
3.34
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.09
1.12
Estrela xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
10%
9.70
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.8 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Estrela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Estrela expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.12 for Estrela, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Estrela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santa Clara come into this having played 5 games, going 3W 0D 2L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Santa Clara, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Estrela sit at 0.40 PPG from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Estrela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Santa Clara carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Estrela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Estrela are on 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Santa Clara have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Early Season
Estrela
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Estrela in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 games (1.80 PPG), while Estrela have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 (0.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Santa Clara's record when hosting Estrela specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Santa Clara
2
Draws
1
Estrela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Estrela?
From 4 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 1, Estrela have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Estrela last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Estrela 1-0 Santa Clara.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 60%, Estrela 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Santa Clara) and 40% (Estrela).
On the defensive side: Estrela in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Estrela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Estrela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 40% of Estrela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Estrela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Santa Clara's recent games and 40% of Estrela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Estrela tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Estrela in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santa Clara defy the odds to beat Estrela 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Estrela 1-0 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 0.98 xG and Estrela 1.12 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estrela landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.80 / defence 1.18 against Estrela attack 0.80 / defence 0.92, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 31% | Draw 30% | Estrela 39%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Santa Clara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 60%, Estrela 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Estrela's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Santa Clara managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.