Santa Clara 3-1 Estoril – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Estoril at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santa Clara vs Estoril fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Estoril travel to Estádio de São Miguel to take on Santa Clara. The game is scheduled for Monday 14 November 2022, 20:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Santa Clara have posted 3W 5D 2L at Estádio de São Miguel — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Estoril have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Estoril have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Santa Clara 0.90 PPG, Estoril 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Santa Clara have won 1, Estoril 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Santa Clara winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Estoril in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 54% versus Estoril 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 50% | Estoril 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 0.99 xG and Estoril 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.924 / defence 1.025 | Estoril attack 0.965 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.113. Data: 46 Santa Clara games / 46 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 32% | Draw 30% | Estoril 38%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Estoril 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estoril offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Santa Clara 60% | Estoril 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Monday 14 Nov 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 32% | Draw 30% | Estoril 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Santa Clara 0.99 / Estoril 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.924 / def 1.025 | Estoril attack 0.965 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Estoril (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Estoril xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Estoril kick off?
Santa Clara vs Estoril kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 14 November 2022 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Estoril?
Santa Clara 3 - 1 Estoril.
Where is Santa Clara vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Estoril part of?
Santa Clara vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 32% chance of winning, Estoril a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Santa Clara and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Estoril?
Record (2 meetings): Santa Clara 1W | Draws 1 | Estoril 0W.
What form are Santa Clara and Estoril in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Estoril (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Santa Clara's attack rating (0.92) and Estoril's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estoril's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
32%
3.12
30%
3.34
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.09
1.10
Estoril xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.6 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.10 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Santa Clara have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 11W 17D 18L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estoril's form line: 13W 16D 17L from 46 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santa Clara on 1.09 PPG, Estoril on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Santa Clara have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (9W 9D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Santa Clara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Estoril have gone 8W 6D 9L from 23 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.07 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
Estoril
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Estoril in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 11W 17D 18L in their last 46 games (1.09 PPG), while Estoril have gone 13W 16D 17L in their last 46 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Estoril away?
Santa Clara's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.57 PPG; Estoril away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Estoril in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Estoril won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santa Clara's record when hosting Estoril specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Santa Clara
1
Draws
3
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Estoril?
From 8 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 4, Estoril have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Santa Clara 2-4 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Estoril?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 61%, Estoril 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Santa Clara) and 30% (Estoril).
On the defensive side: Estoril in 35%; Estoril in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 39% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Santa Clara's recent games and 30% of Estoril's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Estoril tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Estoril in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Santa Clara cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat Estoril 3-1 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 0.99 xG and Estoril 1.10 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Santa Clara beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against Estoril attack 0.96 / defence 0.82, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 32% | Draw 30% | Estoril 38%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Santa Clara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 50%, Estoril 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Estoril's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santa Clara 1.09 PPG, Estoril 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santa Clara win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.