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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 20

Kick-off

Sat 1 Feb 2025

15:30

Venue

Estádio de São Miguel

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Casa Pia Win

27%

Santa Clara

3.71

27%

Draw

3.64

46%

Casa Pia

2.19

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.5%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

11.9%

Away win

1 – 2

9.0%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.05

Santa Clara xG

Total xG

2.49

1.44

Casa Pia xG

27%
27%
46%
Santa ClaraDrawCasa Pia

3.71

27%

Home win

3.64

27%

Draw

2.19

46%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

2.00

50%

BTTS No

2.00

Clean Sheet

24%

Santa Clara

4.22

35%

Casa Pia

2.85

Win to Nil

6%

Santa Clara

15.65

16%

Casa Pia

6.26

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.3 11.9 8.6 4.1 1.5 0.4
1 8.7 12.5 9.0 4.3 1.6 0.5
2 4.6 6.6 4.7 2.3 0.8 0.2
3 1.6 2.3 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.049
λ Away (xG) 1.441
Total xG 2.490
League avg home goals 1.403
League avg away goals 1.152
Santa Clara attack strength 0.761
Santa Clara defence strength 1.064
Casa Pia attack strength 1.176
Casa Pia defence strength 0.983
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 19 / 53