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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rio Ave and SC Braga share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rio Ave and SC Braga finished level at 2-2 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.09 xG and SC Braga 1.43 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Rio Ave beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against SC Braga attack 1.15 / defence 0.78, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 29% | Draw 26% | SC Braga 45%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 50%, SC Braga 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

SC Braga's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Braga (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights