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Shock result as Rio Ave defy the odds to beat SC Braga 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rio Ave beat SC Braga 2-1 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 0.88 xG and SC Braga 1.49 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Rio Ave beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 1.06 / defence 1.21 against SC Braga attack 1.09 / defence 0.62, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 22% | Draw 27% | SC Braga 51%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Rio Ave win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 42%, SC Braga 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

SC Braga's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Rio Ave winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights