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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Estoril run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Rio Ave.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat Rio Ave 0-4 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.91 xG and Estoril 1.41 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Rio Ave fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Estoril outscored their 1.41 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 1.11 / defence 1.07 against Estoril attack 1.11 / defence 1.29, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 48% | Draw 25% | Estoril 27%, with Rio Ave to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Estoril win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 54%, Estoril 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Estoril's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rio Ave 1.14 PPG, Estoril 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Rio Ave (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights