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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Rio Ave 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Rio Ave 2-3 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.42 xG and Benfica 1.49 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 1.49 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 1.13 / defence 1.18 against Benfica attack 1.14 / defence 0.94, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 36% | Draw 25% | Benfica 39%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 43%, Benfica 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Benfica's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Rio Ave (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights