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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rio Ave and AVS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 30, as Rio Ave and AVS drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.46 xG and AVS 0.94 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. AVS outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 0.75 / defence 1.23 against AVS attack 0.66 / defence 1.28, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 49% | Draw 27% | AVS 24%, with Rio Ave to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 56%, AVS 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

AVS's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Rio Ave arrived the stronger side — 1.13 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AVS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights