Portimonense 1-1 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portimonense vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Portimão plays host to Portimonense versus Famalicao in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 9 December 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Portimonense have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portimonense at Estádio Municipal de Portimão this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Portimonense, 1.20 for Famalicao — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Portimonense have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Famalicao in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Portimonense lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Famalicao winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Portimonense half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Famalicao half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portimonense 41% versus Famalicao 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portimonense 41% | Famalicao 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 1.07 xG and Famalicao 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.869 / defence 1.110 | Famalicao attack 0.769 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.274. Data: 46 Portimonense games / 46 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portimonense 35% | Draw 29% | Famalicao 36%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Famalicao 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Portimonense 60% | Famalicao 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 35% | Draw 29% | Famalicao 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Portimonense 1.07 / Famalicao 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.869 / def 1.110 | Famalicao attack 0.769 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Famalicao xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs Famalicao kick off?
Portimonense vs Famalicao kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs Famalicao?
Portimonense 1 - 1 Famalicao.
Where is Portimonense vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs Famalicao part of?
Portimonense vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 35% chance of winning, Famalicao a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Portimonense and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Famalicao?
Record (4 meetings): Portimonense 3W | Draws 0 | Famalicao 1W.
What form are Portimonense and Famalicao in?
Portimonense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Famalicao (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Portimonense's attack at 0.87x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.77x) against Portimonense's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
35%
2.87
29%
3.39
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Portimonense xG
Total xG
2.16
1.09
Famalicao xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
12%
8.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Portimonense and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Portimonense and 1.09 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Portimonense come into this having played 46 games, going 14W 6D 26L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.30 PPG from 46 outings (17W 9D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Portimonense against 1.30 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Portimonense's home form reads 8W 4D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 1.00 points per game from 22 outings (5W 7D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Portimonense are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.09 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 14W 6D 26L in their last 46 games (1.04 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 17W 9D 20L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portimonense at home or Famalicao away?
Portimonense's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portimonense at home: 1.27 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Portimonense or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Famalicao in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Portimonense won 0-3 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portimonense have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Portimonense
2
Draws
1
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Famalicao?
From 6 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 3, Famalicao have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Famalicao 2-2 Portimonense.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and Famalicao?
Portimonense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portimonense 50%, Famalicao 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Portimonense) and 50% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Portimonense have failed to score in 27% of games; Famalicao in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Portimonense's recent matches and 54% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portimonense vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Portimonense's recent games and 50% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portimonense and Famalicao tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portimonense and Famalicao share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portimonense and Famalicao finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 1.07 xG and Famalicao 1.09 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.87 / defence 1.11 against Famalicao attack 0.77 / defence 0.85, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 35% | Draw 29% | Famalicao 36%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 41%, Famalicao 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portimonense's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Famalicao's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portimonense 1.04 PPG, Famalicao 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.