Pacos Ferreira 2-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Famalicao make the trip to Estádio da Capital do Móvel to face Pacos Ferreira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 August 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 0.88 xG and Famalicao 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Famalicao attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.897 / away 1.004. Data: 0 Pacos Ferreira games / 0 Famalicao games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 31% | Draw 32% | Famalicao 37%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Famalicao 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 31% | Draw 32% | Famalicao 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Pacos Ferreira 0.88 / Famalicao 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Famalicao attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.897 / away 1.004 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Famalicao xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao?
Pacos Ferreira 2 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 31% chance of winning, Famalicao a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Famalicao?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Famalicao in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pacos Ferreira's attack at 0.85x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.85x) against Pacos Ferreira's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
31%
3.22
32%
3.11
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
1.86
0.98
Famalicao xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 15.3 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 0.98 for Famalicao, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Pre-Season
Famalicao
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Famalicao have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacos Ferreira have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pacos Ferreira
1
Draws
2
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Famalicao?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, Famalicao have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 1-3 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Pacos Ferreira cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Famalicao.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacos Ferreira beat Famalicao 2-0 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 0.88 xG and Famalicao 0.98 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pacos Ferreira beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Famalicao landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Famalicao attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 31% | Draw 32% | Famalicao 37%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Pacos Ferreira win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.