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Nacional cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Tondela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nacional beat Tondela 3-1 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.54 xG and Tondela 1.19 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nacional beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 0.94 / defence 1.19 against Tondela attack 0.78 / defence 1.22, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 45% | Draw 25% | Tondela 29%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 31%, Tondela 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Tondela's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nacional 0.92 PPG, Tondela 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nacional win broke the near-deadlock. Nacional (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line. Tondela (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights