🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Nacional and Santa Clara share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nacional and Santa Clara finished level at 3-3 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.29 xG and Santa Clara 1.12 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Nacional beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Santa Clara outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 1.03 / defence 1.18 against Santa Clara attack 0.76 / defence 0.87, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 40% | Draw 28% | Santa Clara 32%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 44%, Santa Clara 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Santa Clara's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nacional (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights