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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nacional and Rio Ave share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nacional and Rio Ave finished level at 3-3 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.29 xG and Rio Ave 1.24 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Nacional beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rio Ave outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 0.88 / defence 1.26 against Rio Ave attack 0.82 / defence 1.15, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 38% | Draw 27% | Rio Ave 35%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 41%, Rio Ave 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Rio Ave's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nacional 1.03 PPG, Rio Ave 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nacional (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rio Ave (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights