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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Sat 4 Oct 2025

15:30

Venue

Estádio da Madeira

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Moreirense Win

34%

Nacional

2.92

27%

Draw

3.65

38%

Moreirense

2.61

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.5%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

9.9%

Away win

1 – 0

9.3%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.26

Nacional xG

Total xG

2.61

1.35

Moreirense xG

34%
27%
38%
NacionalDrawMoreirense

2.92

34%

Home win

3.65

27%

Draw

2.61

38%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.86

46%

BTTS No

2.16

Clean Sheet

26%

Nacional

3.86

28%

Moreirense

3.54

Win to Nil

9%

Nacional

11.25

11%

Moreirense

9.24

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.3 9.9 6.7 3.0 1.0 0.3
1 9.3 12.5 8.4 3.8 1.3 0.3
2 5.9 7.9 5.3 2.4 0.8 0.2
3 2.5 3.3 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.264
λ Away (xG) 1.350
Total xG 2.614
League avg home goals 1.270
League avg away goals 1.205
Nacional attack strength 0.900
Nacional defence strength 1.378
Moreirense attack strength 0.813
Moreirense defence strength 1.106
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 41 / 41