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Nacional cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Guimaraes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nacional beat Guimaraes 2-0 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.57 xG and Guimaraes 1.01 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Guimaraes landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Guimaraes attack 0.88 / defence 1.23, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 50% | Draw 25% | Guimaraes 24%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 43%, Guimaraes 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Guimaraes's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Nacional winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights