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Dominant GIL Vicente run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nacional.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIL Vicente beat Nacional 0-3 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.44 xG and GIL Vicente 1.10 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nacional fell 1.4 short of their projected output. GIL Vicente outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against GIL Vicente attack 0.87 / defence 1.15, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 45% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 29%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 38%, GIL Vicente 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nacional 1.10 PPG, GIL Vicente 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. Nacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights