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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nacional cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Estrela.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nacional beat Estrela 2-0 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.59 xG and Estrela 1.07 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Estrela landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against Estrela attack 0.89 / defence 1.17, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 49% | Draw 25% | Estrela 26%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 46%, Estrela 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.

Estrela's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nacional 0.92 PPG, Estrela 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nacional win broke the near-deadlock. Nacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights