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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 22

Kick-off

Sat 15 Feb 2025

17:00

Venue

Estádio da Madeira

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Estoril Win

35%

Nacional

2.87

26%

Draw

3.87

39%

Estoril

2.54

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.5%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 2

8.7%

Away win

0 – 1

8.2%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.41

Nacional xG

Total xG

2.91

1.51

Estoril xG

35%
26%
39%
NacionalDrawEstoril

2.87

35%

Home win

3.87

26%

Draw

2.54

39%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

56%

Over 2.5

1.79

44%

Under 2.5

2.27

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.68

41%

BTTS No

2.46

Clean Sheet

22%

Nacional

4.51

24%

Estoril

4.08

Win to Nil

8%

Nacional

12.94

10%

Estoril

10.39

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.4 8.2 6.2 3.1 1.2 0.4
1 7.6 11.5 8.7 4.4 1.6 0.5
2 5.4 8.1 6.1 3.1 1.2 0.3
3 2.5 3.8 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.2
4 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1
5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.407
λ Away (xG) 1.507
Total xG 2.914
League avg home goals 1.405
League avg away goals 1.190
Nacional attack strength 0.865
Nacional defence strength 1.023
Estoril attack strength 1.238
Estoril defence strength 1.158
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 21 / 55