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Nacional cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Casa Pia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nacional beat Casa Pia 3-1 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.48 xG and Casa Pia 1.32 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nacional beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 0.98 / defence 1.09 against Casa Pia attack 1.09 / defence 1.13, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 41% | Draw 25% | Casa Pia 34%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 40%, Casa Pia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Casa Pia's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nacional 1.04 PPG, Casa Pia 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nacional win broke the near-deadlock. Nacional (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Casa Pia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights