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Benfica cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nacional.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Nacional 0-2 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 0.95 xG and Benfica 1.24 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nacional fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 0.77 / defence 0.99 against Benfica attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 28% | Draw 29% | Benfica 43%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 23%, Benfica 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Benfica's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Nacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights