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Shock result as Arouca defy the odds to beat Nacional 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca beat Nacional 1-2 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.63 xG and Arouca 1.44 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 0.94 / defence 1.32 against Arouca attack 0.87 / defence 1.32, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 42% | Draw 24% | Arouca 34%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Arouca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 41%, Arouca 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Arouca's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nacional 0.97 PPG, Arouca 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights