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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Arouca defy the odds to beat Nacional 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca beat Nacional 1-2 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.60 xG and Arouca 1.14 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Arouca outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 0.92 / defence 0.97 against Arouca attack 1.02 / defence 1.24, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 48% | Draw 26% | Arouca 27%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Arouca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 32%, Arouca 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Arouca's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nacional 1.00 PPG, Arouca 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights