Moreirense vs Sporting CP – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Moreirense's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Sporting CP's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Sporting CP's attack versus Moreirense's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
20%
5.09
21%
4.75
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Moreirense xG
Total xG
3.12
2.04
Sporting CP xG
5.09
20%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
13%
7.65
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
3%
38.98
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Moreirense and 2.04 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Sporting CP?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.