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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 29

Kick-off

Sun 13 Apr 2025

20:30

Venue

Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Moreirense Win

50%

Moreirense

2.01

25%

Draw

3.93

25%

Rio Ave

4.02

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.1%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.9%

Home win

2 – 1

9.4%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.55

Moreirense xG

Total xG

2.57

1.02

Rio Ave xG

50%
25%
25%
MoreirenseDrawRio Ave

2.01

50%

Home win

3.93

25%

Draw

4.02

25%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

47%

Over 2.5

2.13

53%

Under 2.5

1.89

26%

Over 3.5

3.85

74%

Under 3.5

1.35

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

1.99

50%

BTTS No

2.01

Clean Sheet

36%

Moreirense

2.77

21%

Rio Ave

4.73

Win to Nil

18%

Moreirense

5.57

5%

Rio Ave

19.02

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.6 7.8 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.1
1 11.9 12.1 6.2 2.1 0.5 0.1
2 9.2 9.4 4.8 1.6 0.4 0.1
3 4.8 4.9 2.5 0.8 0.2
4 1.9 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.553
λ Away (xG) 1.018
Total xG 2.571
League avg home goals 1.280
League avg away goals 1.182
Moreirense attack strength 1.044
Moreirense defence strength 1.063
Rio Ave attack strength 0.810
Rio Ave defence strength 1.162
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 62 / 62