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Moreirense cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Guimaraes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Moreirense beat Guimaraes 2-0 at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.50 xG and Guimaraes 1.07 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Guimaraes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 1.02 / defence 1.04 against Guimaraes attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Moreirense 47% | Draw 26% | Guimaraes 27%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 53%, Guimaraes 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Moreirense's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Guimaraes's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Moreirense 1.28 PPG, Guimaraes 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Moreirense win broke the near-deadlock. Moreirense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights