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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 33

Kick-off

Sun 11 May 2025

18:00

Venue

Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Estoril Win

32%

Moreirense

3.13

23%

Draw

4.27

45%

Estoril

2.24

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.6%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 2

9.1%

Away win

0 – 1

7.5%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.42

Moreirense xG

Total xG

3.13

1.71

Estoril xG

32%
23%
45%
MoreirenseDrawEstoril

3.13

32%

Home win

4.27

23%

Draw

2.24

45%

Away win

Goals Markets

82%

Over 1.5

1.22

18%

Under 1.5

5.56

61%

Over 2.5

1.64

39%

Under 2.5

2.56

38%

Over 3.5

2.63

62%

Under 3.5

1.61

21%

Over 4.5

4.76

79%

Under 4.5

1.27

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

62%

BTTS Yes

1.61

38%

BTTS No

2.64

Clean Sheet

18%

Moreirense

5.55

24%

Estoril

4.13

Win to Nil

6%

Moreirense

17.39

11%

Estoril

9.25

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.4 7.5 6.4 3.7 1.6 0.5
1 6.2 10.6 9.1 5.2 2.2 0.8
2 4.4 7.5 6.4 3.7 1.6 0.5
3 2.1 3.6 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.3
4 0.7 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.418
λ Away (xG) 1.714
Total xG 3.132
League avg home goals 1.291
League avg away goals 1.204
Moreirense attack strength 0.914
Moreirense defence strength 1.121
Estoril attack strength 1.270
Estoril defence strength 1.202
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 66 / 66