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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 7

Kick-off

Sat 27 Sep 2025

15:30

Venue

Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Moreirense Win

47%

Moreirense

2.14

28%

Draw

3.59

25%

Casa Pia

3.94

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.2%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.5%

Home win

2 – 1

9.3%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.52

Moreirense xG

Total xG

2.58

1.06

Casa Pia xG

47%
28%
25%
MoreirenseDrawCasa Pia

2.14

47%

Home win

3.59

28%

Draw

3.94

25%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

48%

Over 2.5

2.08

52%

Under 2.5

1.92

26%

Over 3.5

3.85

74%

Under 3.5

1.35

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.92

48%

BTTS No

2.09

Clean Sheet

35%

Moreirense

2.89

22%

Casa Pia

4.58

Win to Nil

16%

Moreirense

6.18

6%

Casa Pia

18.05

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.6 8.0 4.3 1.5 0.4 0.1
1 11.5 12.2 6.5 2.3 0.6 0.1
2 8.7 9.3 4.9 1.7 0.5 0.1
3 4.4 4.7 2.5 0.9 0.2
4 1.7 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1
5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.521
λ Away (xG) 1.061
Total xG 2.582
League avg home goals 1.292
League avg away goals 1.211
Moreirense attack strength 1.198
Moreirense defence strength 0.889
Casa Pia attack strength 0.985
Casa Pia defence strength 0.983
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 40 / 40