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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 26

Kick-off

Sun 16 Mar 2025

20:30

Venue

Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Moreirense Win

52%

Moreirense

1.92

25%

Draw

4.06

23%

Boavista

4.27

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.6%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.4%

Home win

2 – 1

9.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.65

Moreirense xG

Total xG

2.67

1.02

Boavista xG

52%
25%
23%
MoreirenseDrawBoavista

1.92

52%

Home win

4.06

25%

Draw

4.27

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

75%

Over 1.5

1.33

25%

Under 1.5

4.00

50%

Over 2.5

2.00

50%

Under 2.5

2.00

28%

Over 3.5

3.57

72%

Under 3.5

1.39

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.93

48%

BTTS No

2.08

Clean Sheet

36%

Moreirense

2.78

19%

Boavista

5.21

Win to Nil

19%

Moreirense

5.36

4%

Boavista

22.25

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.9 7.1 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.1
1 11.4 11.6 6.0 2.0 0.5 0.1
2 9.4 9.6 4.9 1.7 0.4 0.1
3 5.2 5.3 2.7 0.9 0.2
4 2.1 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.651
λ Away (xG) 1.024
Total xG 2.675
League avg home goals 1.345
League avg away goals 1.118
Moreirense attack strength 0.986
Moreirense defence strength 1.108
Boavista attack strength 0.827
Boavista defence strength 1.244
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 59 / 59