Moreirense 0-0 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Moreirense vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas plays host to Moreirense versus Benfica in Primeira Liga (matchday 12). Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Moreirense have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Moreirense at home: 2W 1D 2L from their last 5 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from their last 5 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Benfica's record over their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Benfica away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Benfica are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 2.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Moreirense's last 5 home games and Benfica's last 10 away games) — Moreirense have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Benfica in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Benfica edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Jan 2022, ended Moreirense 1–1 Benfica — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Moreirense half-time and goal-timing data (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Benfica half-time and goal-timing data (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 36% versus Benfica 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 46% | Benfica 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 0.94 xG and Benfica 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 0.822 / defence 0.965 | Benfica attack 1.267 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.248. Benfica bring a tight defence (rating 0.770, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Moreirense's projected output down. Benfica have an above-average attack rating of 1.267, which lifts their away xG to 1.53. Data: built from Moreirense's last 11 games and Benfica's last 45.
Result probabilities: Moreirense 23% | Draw 26% | Benfica 51%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 4.28 | Draw 3.88 | Benfica 1.97. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benfica if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Moreirense 60% (last 5 home games) | Benfica 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 12 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Sunday 3 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 23% | Draw 26% | Benfica 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Moreirense 0.94 / Benfica 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 0.822 / def 0.965 | Benfica attack 1.267 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Benfica (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Benfica xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Moreirense vs Benfica FAQs
What time does Moreirense vs Benfica kick off?
Moreirense vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Benfica?
Moreirense 0 - 0 Benfica.
Where is Moreirense vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Benfica part of?
Moreirense vs Benfica is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 12) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 23% chance of winning, Benfica a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Moreirense and Benfica will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Moreirense vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Moreirense's attack at 0.82x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Benfica's attack (1.27x) against Moreirense's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from Moreirense's last 11 games and Benfica's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
23%
4.28
26%
3.88
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.47
1.53
Benfica xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
5%
19.70
20%
5.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.9 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Moreirense vs Benfica Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.53 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Moreirense come into this having played 11 games, going 6W 2D 3L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.55 PPG from 11 outings (9W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Moreirense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Moreirense's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across their last 5 home games, a 1.40 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.82 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 3.00 points per game from their last 5 away games (5W 0D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 2.55 PPG overall record — Benfica travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Moreirense are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.09 scored and 0.82 conceded. Benfica's attacking output running into Moreirense's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; Benfica in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Blended
Benfica
Blended
Moreirense (Home) vs Benfica (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Moreirense
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Moreirense vs Benfica Form FAQs
What form are Moreirense and Benfica in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 6W 2D 3L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while Benfica have gone 9W 1D 1L in their last 11 (2.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.40 PPG; Benfica away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Moreirense or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Benfica in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 9 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Benfica have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won Moreirense 0-4 Benfica on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Moreirense have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Benfica — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Moreirense
3
Draws
6
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Moreirense vs Benfica H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Benfica?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Moreirense have won 0, Benfica have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Benfica last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 September 2026: Moreirense 0-4 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Moreirense and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 60%, Benfica 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Moreirense) and 60% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Moreirense keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Benfica in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Moreirense vs Benfica Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Moreirense and Benfica matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Moreirense's games and 60% of Benfica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Moreirense and Benfica matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Moreirense's recent games and 60% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Moreirense and Benfica matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Moreirense's recent matches and 60% of Benfica's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Moreirense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense and Benfica finished level at 0-0 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 0.94 xG and Benfica 1.53 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Moreirense fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Benfica landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.82 / defence 0.96 against Benfica attack 1.27 / defence 0.77, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 23% | Draw 26% | Benfica 51%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 46%, Benfica 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Benfica's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.55 PPG against 1.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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