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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Moreirense edge out Alverca 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Moreirense beat Alverca 2-1 at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.56 xG and Alverca 1.08 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Alverca attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Moreirense 49% | Draw 25% | Alverca 26%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights