Maritimo 1-0 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Maritimo at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Maritimo vs Casa Pia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio do Maritimo plays host to Maritimo versus Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 8 August 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Casa Pia's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Casa Pia haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Casa Pia's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Maritimo 0W, Casa Pia 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Casa Pia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.34 xG and Casa Pia 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Casa Pia attack 0.897 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.122. Data: 0 Maritimo games / 34 Casa Pia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Maritimo 41% | Draw 27% | Casa Pia 32%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Casa Pia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Maritimo as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Maritimo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio do Maritimo • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 41% | Draw 27% | Casa Pia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Maritimo 1.34 / Casa Pia 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Casa Pia attack 0.897 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Casa Pia xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Casa Pia kick off?
Maritimo vs Casa Pia kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Estadio do Maritimo.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
Maritimo 1 - 0 Casa Pia.
Where is Maritimo vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio do Maritimo.
What competition is Maritimo vs Casa Pia part of?
Maritimo vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 41% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Maritimo and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Casa Pia?
Record (2 meetings): Maritimo 0W | Draws 0 | Casa Pia 2W.
What form are Maritimo and Casa Pia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Maritimo's attack rating (0.85) and Casa Pia's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.90x) against Maritimo's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.72
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.49
1.16
Casa Pia xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.16 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Pre-Season
Casa Pia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Maritimo
0
Draws
2
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Casa Pia?
From 3 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 1, Casa Pia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Maritimo 1-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Casa Pia?
Casa Pia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Maritimo edge out Casa Pia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo beat Casa Pia 1-0 at Estadio do Maritimo, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.34 xG and Casa Pia 1.16 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Casa Pia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Casa Pia attack 0.90 / defence 1.05, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 41% | Draw 27% | Casa Pia 32%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.