Guimaraes 1-0 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guimaraes at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guimaraes vs Moreirense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guimaraes host Moreirense at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guimaraes stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guimaraes's home record at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Moreirense have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Moreirense have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guimaraes 1.80 PPG, Moreirense 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Guimaraes have won 3, Moreirense 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Guimaraes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Guimaraes in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Moreirense in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guimaraes 54% versus Moreirense 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guimaraes 54% | Moreirense 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guimaraes 1.58 xG and Moreirense 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guimaraes attack 1.013 / defence 1.078 | Moreirense attack 1.013 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.206. Data: 43 Guimaraes games / 43 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guimaraes 44% | Draw 25% | Moreirense 32%. Fair-value odds: Guimaraes 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Moreirense 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guimaraes are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guimaraes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Guimaraes 40% | Moreirense 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guimaraes vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guimaraes 44% | Draw 25% | Moreirense 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Guimaraes 1.58 / Moreirense 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Guimaraes attack 1.013 / def 1.078 | Moreirense attack 1.013 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Guimaraes (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Guimaraes xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Moreirense xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guimaraes vs Moreirense kick off?
Guimaraes vs Moreirense kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What was the final score in Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
Guimaraes 1 - 0 Moreirense.
Where is Guimaraes vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What competition is Guimaraes vs Moreirense part of?
Guimaraes vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Guimaraes a 44% chance of winning, Moreirense a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Guimaraes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Guimaraes and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will Guimaraes vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guimaraes and Moreirense?
Record (4 meetings): Guimaraes 3W | Draws 0 | Moreirense 1W.
What form are Guimaraes and Moreirense in?
Guimaraes (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Moreirense (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guimaraes's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Moreirense's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Moreirense's attack versus Guimaraes's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guimaraes Win
44%
2.29
25%
4.08
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Guimaraes xG
Total xG
2.90
1.32
Moreirense xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
7%
15.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Guimaraes and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Guimaraes and 1.32 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guimaraes come into this having played 43 games, going 23W 9D 11L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Guimaraes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Moreirense sit at 1.60 PPG from 43 outings (20W 9D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guimaraes on 1.81 PPG, Moreirense on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Guimaraes's home form reads 13W 3D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Moreirense have taken 1.52 points per game from 21 outings (10W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guimaraes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guimaraes are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 1.12 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Moreirense in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guimaraes
Blended
Moreirense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guimaraes and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Guimaraes have gone 23W 9D 11L in their last 43 games (1.81 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 20W 9D 14L in their last 43 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guimaraes at home or Moreirense away?
Guimaraes's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guimaraes at home: 2.00 PPG; Moreirense away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Guimaraes or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guimaraes have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Moreirense in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Guimaraes's record when hosting Moreirense specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Guimaraes
1
Draws
2
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guimaraes and Moreirense?
From 8 meetings on record, Guimaraes have won 5, Moreirense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guimaraes and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Guimaraes 1-0 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Guimaraes and Moreirense?
Guimaraes have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guimaraes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guimaraes 52%, Moreirense 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Guimaraes) and 48% (Moreirense).
On the defensive side: Guimaraes keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Moreirense in 38%; Moreirense in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guimaraes home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guimaraes play Moreirense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Guimaraes's recent matches and 33% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guimaraes vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Guimaraes's recent games and 48% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guimaraes and Moreirense tend to score early?
Guimaraes have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Moreirense in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guimaraes edge out Moreirense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guimaraes beat Moreirense 1-0 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.58 xG and Moreirense 1.32 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Moreirense landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.01 / defence 1.08 against Moreirense attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 44% | Draw 25% | Moreirense 32%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 54%, Moreirense 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guimaraes's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Moreirense's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guimaraes 1.81 PPG, Moreirense 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guimaraes win broke the near-deadlock. Guimaraes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.