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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 33

Kick-off

Sun 11 May 2025

18:00

Venue

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Guimaraes Win

52%

Guimaraes

1.92

25%

Draw

3.99

23%

Farense

4.39

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

12.4%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

11.9%

Draw

2 – 0

9.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.59

Guimaraes xG

Total xG

2.56

0.96

Farense xG

52%
25%
23%
GuimaraesDrawFarense

1.92

52%

Home win

3.99

25%

Draw

4.39

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

47%

Over 2.5

2.13

53%

Under 2.5

1.89

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

49%

BTTS Yes

2.03

51%

BTTS No

1.97

Clean Sheet

38%

Guimaraes

2.62

20%

Farense

4.93

Win to Nil

20%

Guimaraes

5.02

5%

Farense

21.63

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.8 7.5 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.1
1 12.4 11.9 5.7 1.8 0.4 0.1
2 9.9 9.5 4.6 1.5 0.4 0.1
3 5.2 5.0 2.4 0.8 0.2
4 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1
5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.595
λ Away (xG) 0.962
Total xG 2.557
League avg home goals 1.291
League avg away goals 1.204
Guimaraes attack strength 1.195
Guimaraes defence strength 0.872
Farense attack strength 0.916
Farense defence strength 1.034
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 66 / 66