GIL Vicente 0-1 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIL Vicente vs SC Braga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees SC Braga travel to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to take on GIL Vicente. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022, 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, GIL Vicente have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SC Braga — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Braga's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Braga are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, GIL Vicente have won 1, SC Braga 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with GIL Vicente winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
GIL Vicente trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
SC Braga trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 52% versus SC Braga 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 52% | SC Braga 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 0.96 xG and SC Braga 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.772 / defence 1.026 | SC Braga attack 1.624 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.057. GIL Vicente's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SC Braga have an above-average attack strength of 1.624 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 GIL Vicente games / 44 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 20% | Draw 23% | SC Braga 56%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | SC Braga 1.79. The model has a clear lean to SC Braga (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Braga are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: GIL Vicente 40% | SC Braga 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 20% | Draw 23% | SC Braga 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG GIL Vicente 0.96 / SC Braga 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.772 / def 1.026 | SC Braga attack 1.624 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.76
SC Braga xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs SC Braga kick off?
GIL Vicente vs SC Braga kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
GIL Vicente 0 - 1 SC Braga.
Where is GIL Vicente vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs SC Braga part of?
GIL Vicente vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 20% chance of winning, SC Braga a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both GIL Vicente and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and SC Braga?
Record (2 meetings): GIL Vicente 1W | Draws 0 | SC Braga 1W.
What form are GIL Vicente and SC Braga in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. SC Braga (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GIL Vicente's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against SC Braga's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
20%
4.88
23%
4.27
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.73
1.76
SC Braga xG
4.88
20%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
17%
5.82
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
4%
28.38
21%
4.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.5 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.76 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs SC Braga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GIL Vicente come into this having played 44 games, going 15W 15D 14L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Braga sit at 1.98 PPG from 44 outings (26W 9D 9L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
GIL Vicente's home form reads 7W 8D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Braga have taken 1.95 points per game from 22 outings (13W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.77 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: SC Braga in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and SC Braga in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 15W 15D 14L in their last 44 games (1.36 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 26W 9D 9L in their last 44 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.32 PPG; SC Braga away: 1.95 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SC Braga in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
GIL Vicente have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
GIL Vicente's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
GIL Vicente
2
Draws
5
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and SC Braga?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 3, SC Braga have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when GIL Vicente 2-1 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 41%, SC Braga 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (GIL Vicente) and 50% (SC Braga).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; SC Braga in 50%; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 46% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 50% of SC Braga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and SC Braga tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out GIL Vicente 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat GIL Vicente 0-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 0.96 xG and SC Braga 1.76 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.77 / defence 1.03 against SC Braga attack 1.62 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 20% | Draw 23% | SC Braga 56%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 52%, SC Braga 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Braga's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.36. That form edge translated into the three points. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.