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Prediction vindicated as Guimaraes edge out GIL Vicente 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat GIL Vicente 0-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 0.89 xG and Guimaraes 1.27 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.71 / defence 1.09 against Guimaraes attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 26% | Draw 29% | Guimaraes 45%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 48%, Guimaraes 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Guimaraes's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Guimaraes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights