GIL Vicente 1-2 FC Porto – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as GIL Vicente take on FC Porto.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos plays host to GIL Vicente versus FC Porto in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Friday 24 September 2021 at 21:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
GIL Vicente have collected 1.33 PPG across 6 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 2L. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
FC Porto's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 2D 0L from 6 games (2.33 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FC Porto have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Porto away from home this season: 1W 2D 0L from 3 away games — 1.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.67 is notably below their overall 2.33 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Porto arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.33 vs 1.33) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Porto goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 33% versus FC Porto 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 33% | FC Porto 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.19 xG and FC Porto 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.022 / defence 1.215 | FC Porto attack 0.934 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.059 / away 1.106. Data: 6 GIL Vicente games / 6 FC Porto games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 31% | Draw 35% | FC Porto 34%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | FC Porto 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 33% | FC Porto 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs FC Porto | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 31% | Draw 35% | FC Porto 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 54% | xG GIL Vicente 1.19 / FC Porto 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.022 / def 1.215 | FC Porto attack 0.934 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.059 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.25
FC Porto xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs FC Porto kick off?
GIL Vicente vs FC Porto kicked off at 21:15 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs FC Porto?
GIL Vicente 1 - 2 FC Porto.
Where is GIL Vicente vs FC Porto being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs FC Porto part of?
GIL Vicente vs FC Porto is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs FC Porto?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 31% chance of winning, FC Porto a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs FC Porto?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both GIL Vicente and FC Porto will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs FC Porto have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and FC Porto?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIL Vicente and FC Porto in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. FC Porto (all comps): 4W-2D-0L in 6 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (1.02) and FC Porto's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Porto's attack (0.93x) against GIL Vicente's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.23
35%
2.85
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.45
1.25
FC Porto xG
3.23
31%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
9%
11.31
10%
9.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.8 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs FC Porto?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and FC Porto expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.25 for FC Porto, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs FC Porto?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIL Vicente come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 2D 2L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Porto sit at 2.33 PPG from 6 outings (4W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Porto, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Porto carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
GIL Vicente's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Porto have taken 1.67 points per game from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L). That's a step down from their 2.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Porto's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Porto are on 2.33 scored and 0.50 conceded. FC Porto's attacking output running into GIL Vicente's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: FC Porto in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Early Season
FC Porto
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and FC Porto in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while FC Porto have gone 4W 2D 0L in their last 6 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or FC Porto away?
FC Porto's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.33 PPG; FC Porto away: 1.67 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or FC Porto been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Porto in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Porto go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Porto won 3-0 on 10 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Porto — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
GIL Vicente
2
Draws
6
FC Porto
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and FC Porto?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 2, FC Porto have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and FC Porto last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when FC Porto 3-0 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and FC Porto?
FC Porto have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC Porto are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for GIL Vicente, 100% for FC Porto — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (GIL Vicente) and 33% (FC Porto).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / FC Porto away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play FC Porto?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of GIL Vicente's games and 100% of FC Porto's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIL Vicente vs FC Porto usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 33% of FC Porto's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and FC Porto tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Porto in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Porto edge out GIL Vicente 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Porto beat GIL Vicente 1-2 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 7, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.19 xG and FC Porto 1.25 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.02 / defence 1.22 against FC Porto attack 0.93 / defence 1.10, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 31% | Draw 35% | FC Porto 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual FC Porto win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 33%, FC Porto 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Porto's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.