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Dominant GIL Vicente run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Famalicao.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIL Vicente beat Famalicao 5-0 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.07 xG and Famalicao 0.87 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. GIL Vicente beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Famalicao landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.93 / defence 0.86 against Famalicao attack 0.79 / defence 0.76, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 40% | Draw 31% | Famalicao 29%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 40%, Famalicao 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Famalicao's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.23 PPG, Famalicao 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights