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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 21

Kick-off

Mon 9 Feb 2026

20:45

Venue

Estádio Do Dragão

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

44%

FC Porto

2.28

28%

Draw

3.61

29%

Sporting CP

3.50

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.0%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

12.8%

Home win

0 – 1

9.8%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.32

FC Porto xG

Total xG

2.33

1.01

Sporting CP xG

44%
28%
29%
FC PortoDrawSporting CP

2.28

44%

Home win

3.61

28%

Draw

3.50

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

68%

Over 1.5

1.47

32%

Under 1.5

3.12

41%

Over 2.5

2.44

59%

Under 2.5

1.69

21%

Over 3.5

4.76

79%

Under 3.5

1.27

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

47%

BTTS Yes

2.14

53%

BTTS No

1.88

Clean Sheet

36%

FC Porto

2.75

27%

Sporting CP

3.75

Win to Nil

16%

FC Porto

6.28

8%

Sporting CP

13.16

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.7 9.8 5.0 1.7 0.4 0.1
1 12.8 13.0 6.6 2.2 0.6 0.1
2 8.5 8.6 4.3 1.5 0.4 0.1
3 3.7 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.2
4 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.323
λ Away (xG) 1.011
Total xG 2.334
League avg home goals 1.539
League avg away goals 1.244
FC Porto attack strength 1.188
FC Porto defence strength 0.593
Sporting CP attack strength 1.370
Sporting CP defence strength 0.724
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 54 / 54