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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 34

Kick-off

Sat 17 May 2025

18:00

Venue

Estádio Do Dragão

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

60%

FC Porto

1.67

24%

Draw

4.19

16%

Nacional

6.18

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.9%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

12.5%

Home win

1 – 1

11.0%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.68

FC Porto xG

Total xG

2.42

0.74

Nacional xG

60%
24%
16%
FC PortoDrawNacional

1.67

60%

Home win

4.19

24%

Draw

6.18

16%

Away win

Goals Markets

70%

Over 1.5

1.43

30%

Under 1.5

3.33

44%

Over 2.5

2.27

56%

Under 2.5

1.79

23%

Over 3.5

4.35

77%

Under 3.5

1.30

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

43%

BTTS Yes

2.35

57%

BTTS No

1.74

Clean Sheet

48%

FC Porto

2.10

19%

Nacional

5.39

Win to Nil

29%

FC Porto

3.50

3%

Nacional

33.29

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.8 6.6 2.4 0.6 0.1
1 14.9 11.0 4.1 1.0 0.2
2 12.5 9.3 3.4 0.9 0.2
3 7.0 5.2 1.9 0.5 0.1
4 3.0 2.2 0.8 0.2
5 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.684
λ Away (xG) 0.741
Total xG 2.425
League avg home goals 1.293
League avg away goals 1.217
FC Porto attack strength 1.281
FC Porto defence strength 0.922
Nacional attack strength 0.660
Nacional defence strength 1.017
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 67 / 33