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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 26

Kick-off

Sun 15 Mar 2026

20:30

Venue

Estádio Do Dragão

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

58%

FC Porto

1.73

25%

Draw

3.96

17%

Moreirense

5.96

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

15.6%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

12.4%

Home win

1 – 1

11.4%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.60

FC Porto xG

Total xG

2.33

0.73

Moreirense xG

58%
25%
17%
FC PortoDrawMoreirense

1.73

58%

Home win

3.96

25%

Draw

5.96

17%

Away win

Goals Markets

68%

Over 1.5

1.47

32%

Under 1.5

3.12

41%

Over 2.5

2.44

59%

Under 2.5

1.69

21%

Over 3.5

4.76

79%

Under 3.5

1.27

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

41%

BTTS Yes

2.41

59%

BTTS No

1.71

Clean Sheet

48%

FC Porto

2.08

20%

Moreirense

4.93

Win to Nil

28%

FC Porto

3.58

3%

Moreirense

29.38

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.8 7.1 2.6 0.6 0.1
1 15.6 11.4 4.2 1.0 0.2
2 12.4 9.1 3.3 0.8 0.1
3 6.6 4.8 1.8 0.4 0.1
4 2.6 1.9 0.7 0.2
5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.596
λ Away (xG) 0.730
Total xG 2.326
League avg home goals 1.476
League avg away goals 1.179
FC Porto attack strength 1.153
FC Porto defence strength 0.648
Moreirense attack strength 0.956
Moreirense defence strength 0.937
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 59 / 59