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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 32

Kick-off

Fri 2 May 2025

20:15

Venue

Estádio Do Dragão

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

55%

FC Porto

1.82

23%

Draw

4.26

22%

Moreirense

4.62

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.1%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.0%

Home win

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.76

FC Porto xG

Total xG

2.77

1.01

Moreirense xG

55%
23%
22%
FC PortoDrawMoreirense

1.82

55%

Home win

4.26

23%

Draw

4.62

22%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

53%

BTTS Yes

1.90

47%

BTTS No

2.11

Clean Sheet

36%

FC Porto

2.75

17%

Moreirense

5.81

Win to Nil

20%

FC Porto

5.02

4%

Moreirense

26.82

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.3 6.3 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.1
1 11.0 11.1 5.6 1.9 0.5 0.1
2 9.7 9.8 5.0 1.7 0.4 0.1
3 5.7 5.7 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.1
4 2.5 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1
5 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.759
λ Away (xG) 1.013
Total xG 2.772
League avg home goals 1.272
League avg away goals 1.206
FC Porto attack strength 1.221
FC Porto defence strength 0.918
Moreirense attack strength 0.915
Moreirense defence strength 1.133
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 65 / 65