FC Porto 2-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Porto at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Porto vs Maritimo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Maritimo make the trip to Estádio Do Dragão to face FC Porto in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 January 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
FC Porto (all games): 10W 0D 0L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Porto, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Porto have posted 9W 0D 0L at Estádio Do Dragão — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.78 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Maritimo have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Maritimo have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward FC Porto. A 1.30 PPG lead over Maritimo (3.00 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC Porto, 0 for Maritimo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Porto — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Maritimo — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Porto 63% and Maritimo 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Porto 79% | Maritimo 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Porto 2.38 xG and Maritimo 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Porto attack 1.484 / defence 0.826 | Maritimo attack 0.783 / defence 1.468. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.436. FC Porto carry an above-average attack strength of 1.484 — their λ of 2.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.468 — this is suppressing FC Porto's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 FC Porto games / 19 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Porto 69% | Draw 19% | Maritimo 12%. Fair-value odds: FC Porto 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Maritimo 8.33. The model has a clear lean to FC Porto (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Porto are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: FC Porto 56% | Maritimo 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Porto vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Do Dragão • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jan 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Porto 69% | Draw 19% | Maritimo 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Porto 2.38 / Maritimo 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: FC Porto attack 1.484 / def 0.826 | Maritimo attack 0.783 / def 1.468 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: FC Porto (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
FC Porto xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Maritimo xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Porto vs Maritimo kick off?
FC Porto vs Maritimo kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 30 January 2022 at Estádio Do Dragão.
What was the final score in FC Porto vs Maritimo?
FC Porto 2 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is FC Porto vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Dragão.
What competition is FC Porto vs Maritimo part of?
FC Porto vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win FC Porto vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives FC Porto a 69% chance of winning, Maritimo a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC Porto the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Porto and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will FC Porto vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Porto and Maritimo?
Record (1 meetings): FC Porto 0W | Draws 1 | Maritimo 0W.
What form are FC Porto and Maritimo in?
FC Porto (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Maritimo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Porto's attack at 1.48x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 2.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.78x) against FC Porto's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Porto Win
69%
1.45
19%
5.39
12%
8.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
FC Porto xG
Total xG
3.31
0.93
Maritimo xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.39
19%
Draw
8.09
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
9%
10.86
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
1%
87.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Porto vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are FC Porto and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for FC Porto and 0.93 for Maritimo, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Porto vs Maritimo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, FC Porto have picked up 2.79 PPG on a 17W 2D 0L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC Porto is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Maritimo's form line: 6W 6D 7L from 19 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Porto are the form team by 1.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Maritimo.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Porto have posted 3.00 PPG from 9 outings (9W 0D 0L).
On the road, Maritimo have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Porto come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Porto are averaging 2.68 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.26 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Porto have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Maritimo in 63%.
Defensively: FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Porto
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Porto and Maritimo in coming into this match?
FC Porto have gone 17W 2D 0L in their last 19 games (2.79 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Porto at home or Maritimo away?
FC Porto's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Porto at home: 3.00 PPG; Maritimo away: 0.89 PPG.
Have FC Porto or Maritimo been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Porto have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Maritimo in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FC Porto have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Porto won 5-1 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Porto have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Porto
1
Draws
0
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Porto and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Porto have won 3, Maritimo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Porto and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2023, when Maritimo 0-2 FC Porto.
Who has won more matches between FC Porto and Maritimo?
FC Porto have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Porto are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 78% of the time.
Maritimo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Porto 56%, Maritimo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for FC Porto and 56% for Maritimo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Porto keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Porto home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Porto play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FC Porto's games and 67% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Porto vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of FC Porto's matches and 56% of Maritimo's.
Do FC Porto and Maritimo tend to score early?
FC Porto have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Porto edge out Maritimo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Porto beat Maritimo 2-1 at Estádio Do Dragão, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Porto 2.38 xG and Maritimo 0.93 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Porto attack 1.48 / defence 0.83 against Maritimo attack 0.78 / defence 1.47, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Porto 69% | Draw 19% | Maritimo 12%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Porto 79%, Maritimo 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Porto's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Maritimo's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.79 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.