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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Sun 5 Oct 2025

21:15

Venue

Estádio Do Dragão

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

44%

FC Porto

2.29

29%

Draw

3.41

27%

Benfica

3.71

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.5%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.6%

Home win

2 – 1

9.0%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.43

FC Porto xG

Total xG

2.51

1.08

Benfica xG

44%
29%
27%
FC PortoDrawBenfica

2.29

44%

Home win

3.41

29%

Draw

3.71

27%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

46%

Over 2.5

2.17

54%

Under 2.5

1.85

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.93

48%

BTTS No

2.07

Clean Sheet

34%

FC Porto

2.94

24%

Benfica

4.19

Win to Nil

15%

FC Porto

6.73

6%

Benfica

15.51

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.1 8.8 4.7 1.7 0.5 0.1
1 11.6 12.5 6.8 2.4 0.7 0.1
2 8.3 9.0 4.8 1.7 0.5 0.1
3 4.0 4.3 2.3 0.8 0.2
4 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.432
λ Away (xG) 1.079
Total xG 2.511
League avg home goals 1.318
League avg away goals 1.207
FC Porto attack strength 1.410
FC Porto defence strength 0.708
Benfica attack strength 1.263
Benfica defence strength 0.771
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 41 / 41