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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Mon 29 Dec 2025

20:15

Venue

Estádio Do Dragão

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

83%

FC Porto

1.21

12%

Draw

8.28

5%

AVS

19.12

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

13.3%

Home win

Most likely

3 – 0

12.3%

Home win

1 – 0

9.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.79

FC Porto xG

Total xG

3.37

0.59

AVS xG

83%
12%
FC PortoDrawAVS

1.21

83%

Home win

8.28

12%

Draw

19.12

5%

Away win

Goals Markets

85%

Over 1.5

1.18

15%

Under 1.5

6.67

66%

Over 2.5

1.52

34%

Under 2.5

2.94

44%

Over 3.5

2.27

56%

Under 3.5

1.79

25%

Over 4.5

4.00

75%

Under 4.5

1.33

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

42%

BTTS Yes

2.39

58%

BTTS No

1.72

Clean Sheet

56%

FC Porto

1.80

6%

AVS

16.20

Win to Nil

46%

FC Porto

2.18

0%

AVS

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.4 2.0 0.6 0.1
1 9.5 5.6 1.7 0.3
2 13.3 7.8 2.3 0.5 0.1
3 12.3 7.3 2.1 0.4 0.1
4 8.6 5.1 1.5 0.3
5 4.8 2.8 0.8 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.785
λ Away (xG) 0.588
Total xG 3.373
League avg home goals 1.388
League avg away goals 1.282
FC Porto attack strength 1.195
FC Porto defence strength 0.661
AVS attack strength 0.694
AVS defence strength 1.679
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 49 / 49