Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 24

Kick-off

Fri 27 Feb 2026

18:45

Venue

Estádio Do Dragão

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC Porto Win

68%

FC Porto

1.48

20%

Draw

5.03

13%

Arouca

7.99

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

13.0%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 0

12.8%

Home win

2 – 1

9.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.02

FC Porto xG

Total xG

2.76

0.73

Arouca xG

68%
20%
13%
FC PortoDrawArouca

1.48

68%

Home win

5.03

20%

Draw

7.99

13%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

45%

BTTS Yes

2.22

55%

BTTS No

1.82

Clean Sheet

48%

FC Porto

2.08

13%

Arouca

7.57

Win to Nil

32%

FC Porto

3.08

2%

Arouca

60.45

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.3 4.7 1.7 0.4 0.1
1 12.8 9.4 3.5 0.8 0.2
2 13.0 9.5 3.5 0.9 0.2
3 8.8 6.4 2.4 0.6 0.1
4 4.4 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.1
5 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.024
λ Away (xG) 0.733
Total xG 2.757
League avg home goals 1.549
League avg away goals 1.208
FC Porto attack strength 1.058
FC Porto defence strength 0.586
Arouca attack strength 1.036
Arouca defence strength 1.236
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 57 / 57