Farense 0-1 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Farense at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Farense vs Moreirense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio de São Lúis plays host to Farense versus Moreirense in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Farense have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Farense have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estádio de São Lúis — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio de São Lúis. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Farense are significantly better at Estádio de São Lúis than their overall form suggests.
Moreirense's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Moreirense have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Farense against 1.40 for Moreirense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Farense lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Moreirense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Farense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Moreirense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 54% versus Moreirense 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 54% | Moreirense 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 1.23 xG and Moreirense 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.804 / defence 1.075 | Moreirense attack 0.815 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.221. Data: 22 Farense games / 22 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Farense 40% | Draw 28% | Moreirense 32%. Fair-value odds: Farense 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Moreirense 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Farense as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Farense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Farense 50% | Moreirense 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 40% | Draw 28% | Moreirense 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Farense 1.23 / Moreirense 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.804 / def 1.075 | Moreirense attack 0.815 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Farense (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Moreirense xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs Moreirense kick off?
Farense vs Moreirense kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs Moreirense?
Farense 0 - 1 Moreirense.
Where is Farense vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs Moreirense part of?
Farense vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 40% chance of winning, Moreirense a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Farense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Farense and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Moreirense?
Record (1 meetings): Farense 0W | Draws 0 | Moreirense 1W.
What form are Farense and Moreirense in?
Farense (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Moreirense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Farense's attack rating (0.80) and Moreirense's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Moreirense's attack (0.81x) against Farense's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Farense Win
40%
2.52
28%
3.53
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Farense xG
Total xG
2.30
1.07
Moreirense xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Farense and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Farense and 1.07 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Farense have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 7W 5D 10L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Farense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Moreirense's form line: 10W 5D 7L from 22 games, 1.59 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Moreirense are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Farense.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Farense have posted 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L).
On the road, Moreirense have gone 5W 3D 3L from 11 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Farense are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 1.18 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Moreirense in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Blended
Moreirense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Farense and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 7W 5D 10L in their last 22 games (1.18 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or Moreirense away?
Moreirense's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 1.36 PPG; Moreirense away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Farense or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Farense have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Moreirense in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Farense have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Moreirense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Farense
1
Draws
3
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and Moreirense?
From 4 meetings on record, Farense have won 0, Moreirense have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Farense and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Moreirense 0-0 Farense.
Who has won more matches between Farense and Moreirense?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 46%, Moreirense 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Farense) and 46% (Moreirense).
On the defensive side: Farense keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Moreirense in 46%; Farense have failed to score in 27% of games; Moreirense in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Farense play Moreirense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Farense's recent matches and 27% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Farense vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Farense's recent games and 46% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Farense and Moreirense tend to score early?
Farense have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Moreirense in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Moreirense defy the odds to beat Farense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense beat Farense 0-1 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.23 xG and Moreirense 1.07 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Farense fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.80 / defence 1.07 against Moreirense attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 40% | Draw 28% | Moreirense 32%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Moreirense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 54%, Moreirense 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Moreirense's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Farense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Moreirense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.