Farense vs GIL Vicente – Match Report

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as GIL Vicente defy the odds to beat Farense 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIL Vicente beat Farense 0-1 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 1.55 xG and GIL Vicente 1.09 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Farense fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.77 / defence 1.09 against GIL Vicente attack 0.92 / defence 1.42, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Farense 48% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 27%, with Farense to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 49%, GIL Vicente 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Farense's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Farense 0.98 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. Farense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights