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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Famalicao 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat Famalicao 1-2 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.02 xG and SC Braga 1.18 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Braga outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.94 / defence 0.71 against SC Braga attack 1.27 / defence 0.83, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 31% | Draw 30% | SC Braga 39%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 46%, SC Braga 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

SC Braga's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.46 PPG, SC Braga 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Braga win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights